This report shows the state of the Valley’s housing market through the end of March. Since it uses three-month averages to reduce monthly variance, the prices and sales shown are the average of January, February and March, which is before the crisis. Due to this, it will show a very healthy housing market, with one of the strongest outlooks we’ve seen. However, the statewide quarantine starting March 18th abruptly everything, and most agents are now left in the dark as to what's happening to sales, prices and other important metrics since that date. We understand this situation and intend to do something about it. For one, metrics for normal housing markets won't work well during the crisis so we’re developing custom metrics specifically for it. The measurements will be much shorter in duration, so they will respond to rapid changes in the market. We hope to present these to you in two weeks and then follow them on a regular basis. The chart above is a sample. Studies have shown that pending sales precede real sales by about 14 days. Normally this fact isn’t very useful, but now it is. The chart plots a four-week (28 day) moving average of sales against a four-week moving average of pending sales, with the pending sales moved forward two weeks. You can see the rapid drop in pending sales since Governor Newson’s stay-at-home order. The red line in the chart, which is pending sales moved forward two weeks, points to where real sales (blue line) will be in about two weeks. Currently real sales are averaging 28 units a day; by April 17th they should be under 20 units. This new report will cover daily inventory changes, price discounts, pending sales and other metrics in a way that will help you know what’s happening to your markets on a weekly basis.
